World Cup 2026 – One Man’s Take on Every Match

Everyone leans on AI for everything now. The World Cup starts June 11. Scroll your feed for two minutes and you will hit another post, video, or reel about someone using artificial intelligence to predict the tournament.

So I used my own supercomputer instead. It is called “my brain.”

There are 104 matches at the 2026 World Cup. Fine – I lied. I only did 103. Skipped the third-place game. Self-care comes first.

This is the biggest World Cup ever. Forty-eight teams. That is 38.5% more matches than four years ago. A lot to get through.

Here is what happens when a real person predicts every game of the 2026 World Cup.

Group A – What You Need to Know

• Mexico: 1800 Elo (14th of 48), 95% chance to advance
• South Korea: 1754 (20th), 77%
• Czechia: 1691 (31st), 60%
• South Africa: 1526 (45th), 35%

These numbers come from the DTAI Analytics Lab at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium. Jesse Davis runs it – an American from Wisconsin. They do the sharpest public-facing analytics in football. Every four years, they try to predict the World Cup. Their model has beaten bookmakers in past tournaments.

Do not take that as betting advice, though. The model beat the implied probabilities from bookmaker odds only after removing the vig – the sportsbook’s cut. Not the actual odds you could have bet against.

Anyway, DTAI gives us a baseline. But I will not just copy their odds. That would be accurate but boring. And still wrong.

Why? Say every top ten team has a 90% chance to leave their group. The chance all ten actually do is only about 35%. So we will look for favourites and underdogs likely to crash out early.

Group A? Mexico are heavy favourites. Two reasons.

One – they play every game at home. In European club football, home advantage is roughly worth adding prime Lionel Messi to your line-up or taking him out.

Two – they got a kind draw. South Korea and Czechia are not as good as their golden generations. South Africa are one of the weakest teams in the tournament.

Group A match by match

Mexico 2, South Africa 0
South Korea 1, Czechia 1
Czechia 1, South Africa 0
Mexico 1, South Korea 1
South Africa 1, South Korea 2
Czechia 1, Mexico 2

Final Group A table

1. Mexico – 7 points, +3 goal difference
2. South Korea – 5 points, +1
3. Czechia – 4 points, 0
4. South Africa – 0 points, -4

Group B – Analysis

• Canada: 1741 (24th), 94% chance to advance
• Switzerland: 1781 (16th), 94%
• Bosnia & Herzegovina: 1589 (41st), 46%
• Qatar: 1591 (40th), 29%

Like Mexico, the hosts – Jesse Marsch and his lads – got a good draw. Canada play all matches at home. And they face two of the bottom ten teams in the tournament.

Look at all competitive games in the Opta database since the start of 2024 for every World Cup team. Only four sides have negative goal differences. Two are in Group B: Qatar and Bosnia.

Marsch is the only bloke to have managed all three of Red Bull’s main clubs – New York, Salzburg, then Leipzig. So Canada press. Hard. They rank near the top in every pressing metric: passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), opponent pass completion, and start distance of their average possession.

Marsch once told our team: “If we’re winning 2-0, I’m always thinking of 3-0 and rarely thinking of 2-1.” That shows. Canada do not concede many shots. But break their press and you can get a clean look at goal. Only two teams have allowed higher quality shots by expected goals per shot.

Their toughest test is Switzerland. Think of them as Europe’s USMNT. They keep producing Champions League talent but are still waiting for that first real superstar.

Sadly, Xherdan Shaqiri retired from internationals two years ago. So the odds of a player going completely naked after a goal are much lower than in the past three tournaments.

Group B match by match

Canada 2, Bosnia 1
Qatar 0, Switzerland 2
Switzerland 2, Bosnia 1
Canada 1, Qatar 0
Switzerland 1, Canada 1
Bosnia 0, Qatar 1

Final Group B table

1. Switzerland – 7 points, +3 goal difference
2. Canada – 7 points, +3
3. Qatar – 3 points, -2
4. Bosnia – 0 points, -3

Group C – What You Need to Know

• Brazil: 1885 rating (5th), 97% chance to advance
• Morocco: 1736 rating (25th), 91% chance to advance
• Scotland: 1684 rating (32nd), 66% chance to advance
• Haiti: 1583 rating (42nd), 16% chance to advance

Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, Brazil have the fourth-best odds to win the World Cup. Only Spain, France, and England sit ahead of them. This is the same Brazil team that finished fifth in CONMEBOL qualifying.

Given how many punters pile onto World Cup betting, I reckon this is a rare case where public money is pushing a team’s odds higher than they should be. Five World Cups. Fun yellow shirts. Loads of lads with one name. You get the picture.

But the talent is not what it used to be. Several players in this squad are turning out in Saudi Arabia and Russia. And outside of Neymar – 34 years old and possibly not fully fit – nobody else has scored more than 11 goals for the national team.

That said, Morocco look like the only real threat to Carlo Ancelotti’s side in this group. Their defence is rock solid, and they have that lawyer-awarded AFCON title under their belt. Scotland have plenty of familiar names and will be awkward to play against, but the results just have not been there. Haiti? They have been outscored 8-2 in three matches against World Cup teams since the start of 2024.

Group C match by match

Brazil 0, Morocco 1
Haiti 1, Scotland 2
Scotland 0, Morocco 0
Brazil 3, Haiti 0
Scotland 0, Brazil 1
Morocco 2, Haiti 0

Final Group C table

1. Morocco – 7 points, +3 goal difference
2. Brazil – 6 points, +3
3. Scotland – 4 points, 0
4. Haiti – 0 points, -6

Group D – What You Need to Know

• United States: 1765 rating (18th), 78% chance to advance
• Türkiye: 1771 rating (17th), 73% chance to advance
• Australia: 1747 rating (22nd), 64% chance to advance
• Paraguay: 1706 rating (28th), 58% chance to advance

Quick lesson on probabilities. All four teams in Group D are more likely to go through than not. That is because eight third-place sides also advance. But here is the catch – it is impossible for all four to make it. The team that finishes fourth is automatically out.

So how tight is this group? The rating gap between the USA and Paraguay is smaller than the gap between England and France – the fourth and third ranked sides overall. And if you are wondering why the USMNT have the best odds to advance despite a lower rating than Türkiye? Home games. All of them.

I have said this before. I do not think this is a great draw for the Americans. Here is why.

Look at Ecuador. They are rated similarly to the USA. Ecuador are in a group with Germany – one of the pre-tournament favourites – and a very talented Ivory Coast. Yet Ecuador have a 92% chance to get out. Why? Because the fourth team in that group is Curaçao. Third weakest rating in the whole tournament.

If you finish third with at least three points, you almost certainly go through. In a group with one weak side, three points will likely be enough.

But Group D? Anyone can beat anyone. So there is a real chance that three points will not be enough to finish third. Either because another team with three points has the tiebreaker over you, or because everyone else picks up at least four points.

Group D match by match

USMNT 2, Paraguay 0
Australia 1, Türkiye 1
USMNT 1, Australia 1
Türkiye 1, Paraguay 2
Paraguay 1, Australia 1
Türkiye 2, USMNT 1

Final Group D table

1. USMNT – 4 points, +1 goal difference
2. Türkiye – 4 points, 0
3. Paraguay – 4 points, -1
4. Australia – 3 points, 0

Group E – What You Need to Know

• Germany: 1867 rating (8th), 97% chance to advance
• Ecuador: 1793 rating (15th), 92% chance to advance
• Ivory Coast: 1618 rating (37th), 79% chance to advance
• Curaçao: 1520 rating (46th), 9% chance to advance

That 9% for Curaçao might still be too generous. Germany and Ivory Coast are both better than their ratings suggest. Their ceilings are higher than the numbers show.

Ecuador are one of the toughest defensive sides in the tournament. Two of their back line just started the Champions League final – Arsenal’s Piero Hincapié and PSG’s Willian Pacho. Then you add Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea. One of the best defensive midfielders in the world.

I do not expect much tactical jockeying in the group stage. We do not really know who ends up where yet. But if results go as expected, the group winner faces France in the round of 16. Second place? Brazil in the last 16, then England in the quarter-finals. Both are rated lower than France.

Group E match by match

Germany 5, Curaçao 0
Ivory Coast 0, Ecuador 1
Germany 3, Ivory Coast 1
Ecuador 2, Curaçao 0
Ecuador 1, Germany 1
Curaçao 1, Ivory Coast 3

Final Group E table

1. Germany – 7 points, +7 goal difference
2. Ecuador – 7 points, +3
3. Ivory Coast – 3 points, -1
4. Curaçao – 0 points, -9

Group F – Analysis

• Netherlands: 1868 rating (7th), 92% chance to advance
• Japan: 1833 rating (10th), 90% chance to advance
• Sweden: 1701 rating (29th), 49% chance to advance
• Tunisia: 1583 rating (43rd), 36% chance to advance

Losing Kaoru Mitoma hurts Japan badly. He peaked a little late to become a nine-figure player for the biggest clubs. But over the last three seasons, he has genuinely played at that level.

Expected possession value is a stat that measures how much a player’s on-ball actions increase his team’s chance of scoring. Since the 2023-24 season, only a handful of players rank ahead of Mitoma. Two Man City starters. The last two Premier League players of the year. And the two best attackers on the team that just won the league.

I am focusing on Japan because they have been genuinely good for a while now. That is why they sit in the top ten of the Elo ratings. They are also one of the few teams we will see play an organised defensive press this summer.

If you have ever been frustrated with how the USMNT play over the past five years, Japan is a legitimate reason for that frustration. But only a handful of teams can lose their best attacker and still expect a deep run. Japan are not one of them.

Quick note on Sweden – they won zero games in their World Cup qualifying group. Finished dead last.

Group F match by match

Japan 2, Netherlands 1
Sweden 2, Tunisia 1
Netherlands 2, Sweden 0
Tunisia 0, Japan 1
Tunisia 0, Netherlands 3
Japan 1, Sweden 1

Final Group F table

1. Japan – 7 points, +2 goal difference
2. Netherlands – 6 points, +4
3. Sweden – 4 points, -1
4. Tunisia – 0 points, -5

Group G – Analysis and Predictions

• Belgium: 1816 rating (12th), 88% chance to advance
• Iran: 1757 Elo (19th), 74%
• Egypt: 1632 Elo (35th), 67%
• New Zealand: 1599 Elo (39th), 41%

I saw something on social media the other day calling Belgium a “potential dark horse” for the 2026 World Cup. Can you be a dark horse for four tournaments running? Truth is, they are now just part of the “Everyone Else” pack behind the top seven or eight sides.

Jérémy Doku is their only real star now. The rest are mid-thirties former names like Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne. Belgium look ripe for an upset. Remember – they did not even get out of their group in 2022, and that squad was much better.

But they landed in a soft group. Iran have the second-oldest roster after Panama. Egypt’s two stars – Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush – both had down years following strong 2024-25 campaigns. And New Zealand? They have a better shout than most other minnows to escape their group.

Group G match by match

Belgium 2, Egypt 1
Iran 1, New Zealand 1
Belgium 1, Iran 1
New Zealand 2, Egypt 1
New Zealand 1, Belgium 2
Egypt 0, Iran 0

Final Group G table

1. Belgium – 7 points, +2 goal difference
2. New Zealand – 4 points, 0
3. Iran – 3 points, 0
4. Egypt – 1 point, -2

Group H – Analysis and Predictions

• Spain: 1979 rating (1st), 99% chance to advance
• Uruguay: 1803 Elo (13th), 86%
• Saudi Arabia: 1616 Elo (38th), 36%
• Cape Verde: 1489 Elo (47th), 34%

According to Transfermarkt’s crowdsourced numbers, six players in the world right now would command a transfer fee of €200 million or more. Only two nations have two of those players on their books – Spain and France. No coincidence they are the two favourites to win the whole thing.

Put it another way. Lamine Yamal and Pedri together are worth €350 million. The entire squads of Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde combined? €96 million. Uruguay just edge Yamal and Pedri by about €50 million.

But that is just numbers on a page. You already know the drill here. One huge favourite for top spot. Another clear favourite for second. Two teams scrapping for third.

Group H match by match

Spain 5, Cape Verde 0
Saudi Arabia 0, Uruguay 2
Spain 3, Saudi Arabia 0
Uruguay 3, Cape Verde 0
Uruguay 1, Spain 2
Cape Verde 2, Saudi Arabia 1

Final Group H table

1. Spain – 9 points, +9 goal difference
2. Uruguay – 6 points, +4
3. Cape Verde – 3 points, -7
4. Saudi Arabia – 0 points, -6

Group I – Analysis and Predictions

• France: 1939 rating (3rd), 95% chance to advance
• Senegal: 1727 rating (26th), 83%
• Norway: 1746 rating (23rd), 72%
• Iraq: 1653 rating (34th), 20%

The DTAI model is a bit lower on Norway and Senegal than I am.

Here is the thing about international football. It is a dumbed-down version of the club game. Teams do not have enough training time together. They cannot coordinate the same high-pressing and possession patterns you see in the Premier League or La Liga. What works instead? A few decent defenders. One bloke who creates chances. One bloke who puts them away.

Norway have Martin Odegaard – one of the best creators around. And Erling Haaland – the best scorer on the planet. Senegal have a bunch of Europe-based talent that already knows how to work together. They won the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations – the version decided on the pitch, not by officials in a boardroom.

France are the most talented side in the tournament. Looks like they will lose William Saliba to injury. Already lost Hugo Ekitike to a torn Achilles. They are the only country that could lose two players that good and still be among the favourites.

Here is some perspective on how tough their group is. DTAI Lab has France as the third favourites to win the World Cup. But they only have the seventh-best odds to get out of the round of 32.

Group I match by match

France 2, Senegal 1
Iraq 0, Norway 2
France 3, Iraq 1
Senegal 1, Norway 1
Norway 1, France 1
Senegal 3, Iraq 1

Final Group I table

1. France – 7 points, +3 goal difference
2. Norway – 5 points, +2
3. Senegal – 4 points, +1
4. Iraq – 0 points, -6

Group J – What You Need to Know

• Argentina: 1965 rating (2nd), 98% chance to advance
• Austria: 1749 (21st), 65%
• Algeria: 1659 (33rd), 64%
• Jordan: 1628 (36th), 35%

I am not that high on Argentina to win the whole thing. But this group? They are massive favourites. The squad is ageing. Hardly any fresh faces from 2022. Still, their combined market value is bigger than Jordan, Austria, and Algeria put together.

Algeria are one of the younger sides in the tournament. Austria are one of the few teams that can actually put out a cohesive, aggressive press. Neither probably has the quality to shock Messi and his lads. But both have the shape of teams that have, in the past, knocked out sides who held on for one cycle too many.

Winning the group matters for Argentina. Finish second and who do they likely face in the round of 32? Spain.

Group J match by match

Argentina 1, Algeria 0
Austria 3, Jordan 1
Argentina 2, Austria 2
Jordan 1, Algeria 1
Jordan 0, Argentina 3
Algeria 1, Austria 1

Final Group J table

1. Argentina – 7 points, +4 goal difference
2. Austria – 5 points, +2
3. Algeria – 2 points, -1
4. Jordan – 1 point, -5

Group K – Analysis

• Portugal: 1874 rating (6th), 89% chance to advance
• Colombia: 1855 (9th), 90%
• Uzbekistan: 1711 (27th), 52%
• Congo DR: 1538 (44th), 35%

This group reminds me of Germany in 2018. Actually, it reminds me of Germany’s whole situation back then.

Germany came into 2018 as favourites after winning the World Cup. They were skewed towards attack. Trying to juggle multiple generations of talent. The group had no real giants – just solid sides: Sweden, Mexico, South Korea. Germany won one match, finished bottom, and flew home early.

Now look at Portugal. They just won the Nations League. They are favourites again. Skewed towards attack because Roberto Martinez manages them. And they are playing 40-something Cristiano Ronaldo up top with a group of players arguably two generations behind him.

Colombia are the ninth-best side by DTAI’s ratings. Uzbekistan look like minnows, but their rating sits them between Senegal and Paraguay. Congo DR have no real track record, but their talent level is higher than you would expect. By market value, they sit right between Bosnia and South Korea.

DTAI gives Portugal an 89% chance to get out of the group. That is only the 16th-highest number in the tournament. I am forcing myself to pick one favourite to crash out early. Here it is.

Group K match by match

Portugal 1, Congo DR 2
Uzbekistan 1, Colombia 2
Portugal 2, Uzbekistan 1
Colombia 1, Congo DR 0
Colombia 2, Portugal 0
Congo DR 1, Uzbekistan 2

Final Group K table

1. Colombia – 9 points, +4 goal difference
2. Uzbekistan – 3 points, -1
3. Congo DR – 3 points, -1
4. Portugal – 3 points, -2

Group L – Analysis

• England: 1886 rating (4th), 97% chance to advance
• Croatia: 1821 (11th), 90%
• Panama: 1699 (30th), 46%
• Ghana: 1478 (48th), 28%

Since Euro 2024 ended, England have:

– moved the ball upfield slower than any other team in the World Cup
– produced the second-fewest possessions per game
– allowed the joint-fewest goals
– allowed the second-fewest shots
– scored the second-most goals from set pieces

Sound familiar?

This side will frustrate a lot of people. And they will be a nightmare to beat. They play like the team that just won the Premier League and lost the Champions League final on penalties – but with Harry Kane up front.

Group L match by match

England 1, Croatia 1
Ghana 1, Panama 2
England 3, Ghana 0
Panama 1, Croatia 2
Panama 0, England 2
Croatia 2, Ghana 0

Final Group L table

1. England – 7 points, +5 goal difference
2. Croatia – 7 points, +3
3. Panama – 3 points, -2
4. Ghana – 0 points, -6

Round of 32 – This New Format Is a Mess

The new World Cup format is terrible. For a few reasons.

First, you will not actually know who qualifies until every group game is done. Second, there are 495 different permutations for the round of 32. Why? Because FIFA does not want teams from the same group facing each other at this stage.

So the eight best third-place teams decide which group winners they play. Then you have 12 group winners but only eight third-place teams. Some winners will face a runner-up. Others will face a third-place side. But that is not decided by group performance. No – that was already set by a draw.

Group winners from F, H, C and J (I think) all face second-place finishers. Some second-place finishers then get to play another second-place team instead of a group winner.

Basically, you cannot know the draw at this point. Yet the draw will have a bigger impact on this World Cup than any other. FIFA have done it again.

Anyway, based on my predictions, the round of 32 does not throw up many crackers. Norway vs Ecuador is a battle of two sleepers. Japan vs Brazil is two top-ten DTAI sides going at it. Argentina vs Uruguay? That could break the record for yellow cards in a single match.

More interestingly, the USMNT win their group in my forecast. But they get a much harder round of 32 game – Ivory Coast – than the second-place team, Türkiye, who draw New Zealand, the lowest-rated side to make it out of the groups.

Round of 32 – my calls

South Korea 1, Canada 2
Morocco 1, Netherlands 1 (Netherlands on pens)
Germany 2, Paraguay 0
Japan 1, Brazil 1 (Japan on pens)
Ecuador 1, Norway 2
France 3, Sweden 1
Mexico 1, Scotland 0
England 2, Congo DR 0
USMNT 2, Ivory Coast 1
Belgium 2, Czechia 1
Uzbekistan 0, Croatia 1
Spain 3, Austria 1
Türkiye 2, New Zealand 0
Argentina 1, Uruguay 0
Colombia 1, Senegal 1 (Colombia on pens)
Switzerland 0, Iran 1

Round of 16 – Breaking Down the Big Ones

Germany (30% chance to reach quarter-finals) vs France (50%)

This is the tie of the round. The one heavyweight clash we can map out despite FIFA’s messy draw.

Germany have the better midfield. They are also one of the few proper “system” sides in this tournament. Clear, aggressive attacking shape. Not just set pieces, counters, or grinding teams down. Julian Nagelsmann is among the best coaches in the world. And people forget – Germany were minutes away from knocking Spain out of the Euros.

A Germany win here would not shock me. Frankly, a Germany World Cup win would not shock me either. But they got just about the worst draw possible.

Predicted result: France 2, Germany 1

Canada (27% chance) vs Japan (28%)

This would be a proper fun stylistic scrap. Essentially a Bundesliga match. Both sides pressed each other. Midfield control? Non-existent. The big question – do Canada still get home advantage in Houston?

Predicted result: Canada 1, Japan 0

Netherlands (34% chance) vs Norway (18%)

Since the start of 2024, Norway have scored 52 goals in 14 competitive matches. Conceded only 12. That plus-40 goal difference is the best in the entire field.

Predicted result: Norway 1, Netherlands 1 (Norway on pens)

Mexico (36% chance) vs England (40%)

These two have the fourth and sixth best odds to reach the last eight. Mexico’s problem? Their most likely path puts them against England in the round of 16 – even though the combined chance of easier routes is much higher. This one would be at the Azteca in Mexico City. But England probably has enough to grind it out.

Predicted result: England 1, Mexico 0

Croatia (19% chance) vs Spain (60%)

One of these teams is significantly better than the other.

Predicted result: Spain 3, Croatia 1

United States (21% chance) vs Belgium (25%)

Number of Belgium players still in the squad from when these two met in 2014: four.
Number of USMNT players still in the squad from 2014: zero.

That, plus some proper home advantage in Seattle, is enough for the USMNT to reach their first quarter-final in 24 years.

Predicted result: USMNT 2, Belgium 1

Argentina (56% chance) vs Türkiye (18%)

I do not love that Argentina are old. Nearly the same core from 2022. Messi gets injured all the time now. What happens if he breaks down this summer?

The innovator’s dilemma should strike again. But here is the thing we do not like to admit – the luck of the draw matters just as much as quality in deciding a World Cup winner.

Predicted result: Argentina 1, Türkiye 0

Iran (13% chance) vs Colombia (33%)

A game with absolutely no political undertones. None at all. Colombia win this easily.

Predicted result: Colombia 2, Iran 0

World Cup Quarterfinals – Who Gets Through

France (33% shot at the semis) vs. Canada (11%)

Not much to say here, honestly. France have too much quality for Jesse Marsch and his lads. Simple as that.

Predicted result: France 2, Canada 0

Spain (48% shot at the semis) vs. United States (7%)

This would be the best side the Americans have faced at a World Cup since 1994. Yes, they played Germany in 2014 – the eventual winners – but that match was not even a must-win for the Germans. They had already topped the group comfortably. Did not feel like a proper competitive game.

This one would. Think back to USA vs. Brazil in the round of 16 back in 1994. Spain is too organised and too skilled.

Predicted result: Spain 2, USMNT 0

Norway (7% shot at the semis) vs. England (23%)

Based on the DTAI numbers, there is roughly an 80% chance that at least one team from outside their top ten makes the semi-finals. None of those sides look likely on their own, but the combined probability of the other 38 teams is massive.

If that sounds confusing, just think about the tournament winner. No single team has better than a 24% chance to lift the trophy. Yet someone has to.

So Norway become my outside-the-top-ten pick for the semis. You have Haaland. You have Odegaard. A cracking recent record. A bunch of big lads. And a draw that keeps them away from France and Spain.

Predicted result: Norway 1, England 0

Argentina (42% shot at the semis) vs. Colombia (18%)

The vulnerable Argentines draw another side I do not fancy to knock them off. All my gripes about Argentina – no fresh blood, too reliant on one star and a bunch of blokes in their thirties – apply just as much to Colombia. Same problem, less talent.

Predicted result: Argentina 1, Colombia 0

World Cup Semi-finals – The Business End

France (19% shot at the final) vs. Spain (35%)

Last time these two met? The Nations League semis last summer. Spain won 5-4. Before that? Euro 2024 semis. Spain won 2-1. This could be an all-timer.

But here is the catch. Spain were up 4-0 in that Nations League game. Then 5-1. France scored late to make the scoreboard look respectable.

Both sides carry injured stars into the tournament. Yamal missed the last month of the season with a hamstring issue. Saliba might miss the whole World Cup with a back problem. That is the best right winger and the best centre-back in the world.

Looking at the draw, Spain probably do not face a real test until the semis. That gives Yamal time to build up without Spain paying the price. France have centre-back depth for days, but no one else offers Saliba’s cool-headed calm.

Predicted result: Spain 3, France 3 – Spain win on penalties

Norway (3% shot at the final) vs. Argentina (28%)

This feels like France vs. Morocco in the 2022 semis. The defending champions against the sleeper who knocked out a few favourites along the way.

Norway have more top-end talent than that Morocco side. They fit the exact blueprint to beat this creaky Argentina group – big, strong, quick, and no-nonsense. But as much as I want to go with them, I cannot look at that 3% number and pull the trigger.

Predicted result: Argentina 2, Norway 1

Predicting the 2026 World Cup final

Spain (24% chance to win it) vs. Argentina (17%)

In current form, these two are miles ahead of everyone else. Not even close.

Argentina have won two Copas America – one either side of the last World Cup. They also cruised through CONMEBOL qualifying. Spain? Current European champions. Lost the Nations League final on penalties. Conceded just two goals in an unbeaten World Cup qualifying campaign.

Beyond that, the draw has been kind to both. Most of the likely permutations favour them. Even if you stuck strictly to the DTAI projections, neither side would meet a top-eight team before the semis.

The Messi–Yamal story would be everywhere. There is literally a photo of Messi holding a newborn Yamal. Hard to ignore. And honestly, it would feel right.

Kylian Mbappé was the first anointed heir to Messi’s GOAT throne. Messi beat him in the 2022 final. Then came Haaland. In this prediction, Argentina knock him out in the 2026 semis as well.

But Yamal? He is closer to Messi than either of them. He plays like him. He plays for the same club. And what he has already done at such a young age makes him the most likely candidate to one day match Messi’s achievements. If he is going to do that, the 2026 World Cup final is as good a place as any to start.

Predicted winner: Spain 2, Argentina 1