The World Cup has entered its quarter-final phase, with teams like France, Spain, Argentina, and England emerging as frontrunners according to statistical analyses. Each of the eight teams still in contention boasts favorable metrics from their tournament performances.
France’s Dominance
France leads with a total of 33 carries that resulted in shots. The squad’s remarkable ability to navigate past defenders is noteworthy. According to data from Opta, ball carries of at least five meters are tracked, focusing on whether these runs culminate in a shot or a created chance. Key players like Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Kylian Mbappé, and Michael Olise each have at least four productive carries, while Bradley Barcola is just one pass away from joining this elite group.
Morocco’s Intensity
With a remarkable average of 0.75 sprints per kilometer, Morocco has demonstrated the most sprinting among the remaining teams. Although they have played an extra half-hour compared to some competitors, it is unlikely that extra time will see extensive sprinting.
Their sprints per distance ratio indicates they have exerted themselves more intensely than others. Competing in air-conditioned stadiums may have contributed to their stamina, positioning them well against France.
Spain’s Defensive Solidity
Spain has an expected goals conceded figure of 1.49. Their average possession closely resembles what they achieved during Euro 2012. While their current squad is more dynamic than past teams, their ball possession has allowed them to construct a strong defense.
To illustrate Spain’s defensive capabilities, it is noteworthy that Norway has allowed a minimum of 1.49 expected goals in four of their five encounters.
Belgium’s High Turnovers
Belgium has excelled in generating high turnovers, with 15 leading directly to shots. Opta’s metric for high turnovers records when a team initiates an open-play possession sequence within 40 meters of the opponent’s goal. Spain tops this category with 50 occurrences, while Belgium trails with 41.
The advantage for Belgium lies in their unique ability to convert these turnovers into scoring opportunities, having converted their 15 high turnovers into goals, the highest of any team. This could put pressure on Spain’s defense to commit uncharacteristic errors.
Norway’s Quality Approach
Norway’s motto has been to prioritize quality over quantity, reflected in their expected goals-per-shot average of 0.17. Despite taking only four shots more than Cape Verde, they have played one more match. Their chances have been of a higher quality than any other team in the tournament.
Although five games provide a small sample size, Norway’s non-penalty expected goals per shot is the highest among all teams in Europe’s top five leagues last season.
England’s Ruthless Attack
England showcased an efficient attacking display against Mexico, achieving six shots with five on target and converting three into goals. Their scoring methods included two tap-ins and a penalty, which Opta categorized as big chances—defined as situations where a player is highly expected to score.
Despite previous struggles with conversion, England has now created more significant scoring opportunities than any other team in the tournament.
Argentina’s Versatile Attack
Argentina shares the top scoring title with 14 goals, distinguished by their diverse attacking methods. No other team has netted as many goals outside traditional play as they have.
Argentina’s scoring feats include two counterattacks against Austria, two goals from free-kicks in their match against Jordan, and two from corners against Cape Verde. Remarkably, they can afford Lionel Messi to miss penalties without compromising their scoring prowess.
Switzerland’s Direct Speed
Although Switzerland may not appear particularly fast on the attack, they hold the highest direct speed among the quarter-finalists, averaging 1.77 meters per second in ball movement toward the opponent’s goal. This metric, according to Opta, indicates their pace in transitioning play.
As they prepare to face Argentina, who are likely to control possession, Switzerland must capitalize on any opportunities that arise.
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