Argentina’s defensive line has not consistently shown the prowess expected from World Cup champions this summer. Teams like Cape Verde, Egypt, and Jordan have collectively netted five goals against them, with their only clean sheets recorded against Algeria and Austria.
The ease with which these relatively weaker opponents have breached Lionel Scaloni’s side should inspire confidence in England’s Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane. Despite the shaky results, Argentina’s defensive metrics have been solid; their average of 0.52 expected goals conceded per 90 minutes ranks second only to Spain (0.31) among all 48 participating teams.
Given that Argentina has faced the weakest opponents based on FIFA rankings among the four semi-finalists, one might expect them to concede fewer chances. They have excelled, however, at controlling the locations of these opportunities. Only Uruguay has permitted a higher percentage of shots from outside their penalty area (56%), while Colombia ties with Argentina at 52%, followed by Ecuador at 45%. This has emerged as a notable strength for South American teams in this World Cup.
In another commendable statistic, Argentina and Ecuador stand out as the only teams that have not allowed a single shot within their six-yard box. This success, although somewhat arbitrary, is defined by a line on the field. For instance, Deroy Duarte’s close-range goal for Cape Verde against Argentina came from just outside the six-yard box, as did Dan Ndoye’s strike for Switzerland in the quarter-finals. The statistics highlight the significance of this area; shots taken from within the six-yard box have a conversion rate of 27.1%, nearly double that of attempts from other parts of the penalty area (13.7%).
England has not been particularly effective in scoring from close range, having only taken nine shots from within the six-yard box, trailing behind Canada (12), Ecuador (11), and Norway (10), let alone Spain (14) or Argentina (10). Nevertheless, they can leverage set pieces to challenge the reigning champions more effectively. Argentina has allowed just 0.63 expected goals from set plays, with Cape Verde being the sole team to generate more than three corners against them.
England has effectively capitalized on set pieces, creating five close-range scoring chances. Their three attempts in Croatia’s six-yard box resulted from corner kicks, similar opportunities also emerged against Ghana and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Notably, Bellingham scored twice from fewer than six yards out during open play against Mexico.
While Argentina may be prepared for the diverse threats ahead in Atlanta, England’s ability to identify and exploit shot locations that Argentina has so far defended well could be crucial for success.
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