Before England faced Argentina, Thomas Tuchel undoubtedly anticipated various scenarios that could unfold during the match. He likely contemplated how to balance offensive opportunities with defensive stability, and how to adapt if they scored or fell behind. Like many managers before him, he devoted significant attention to devising a plan to neutralize Lionel Messi.
Initially, Messi appeared to be a non-factor, with statistics revealing that England effectively restricted his impact in critical areas. The only time he touched the ball in the penalty area was thwarted by a tackle from Elliot Anderson shortly after Anthony Gordon netted the opening goal. Notably, only 4.3% of Messi’s distance covered was at sprinting speed, which was lower than his previous matches against Switzerland (4.6%) and Egypt (5.4%).
Tuchel would have been encouraged by Messi’s lack of attempts on goal. He managed only one long-range shot that was blocked before it reached the England penalty area. In fact, this marked one of the lowest shot counts for Messi in any full 90-minute World Cup match, a statistic that further illustrates his struggles in this game. So far, the situation seemed favorable for England.
Messi’s heat map indicated he was active in his typical zones, particularly in the right half-space near the opponent’s penalty area. While it would be an overstatement to claim England had him completely under control, they at least managed to contain him to expected areas of the pitch, which is a manageable situation.
However, a comprehensive heat map can mask subtle changes in a player’s position. For instance, Messi’s only touch on the flank between the penalty box and the touchline during the first half occurred near the center circle when he passed to an offside Giuliano Simeone.
Yet, it was from this flank that Messi ultimately turned the tide against England. In the second half, he attempted six open-play crosses from this area, a remarkable figure for a player who averages just 2.3 crosses per 90 minutes in league play since 2015. This achievement was surpassed only in two previous World Cup matches, both occurring in the two rounds prior to this one.
One of Messi’s crosses led to a header from Nico González that Jordan Pickford managed to save just before the second hydration break. This moment may have influenced Tuchel’s decision to substitute Ezri Konsa shortly afterward, later reinforcing the defense with Dan Burn as he shifted to a back five. This strategy had worked against Mexico; why not replicate it here?
However, Messi’s crossing abilities far exceed those of Roberto Alvarado and Jesús Gallardo, the two Mexican players who attempted 25 open-play crosses during their match without generating significant chances. In contrast, Messi’s cross for Lautaro Martínez’s winning goal produced a remarkable 0.53 expected goals (xG), surpassing England’s total output for the entire match. This was only Messi’s second World Cup assist with his right foot, a much more challenging feat than the cutback he provided to Julián Álvarez in the semi-finals in Qatar.
This match showcased an unusually atypical statistical performance for Messi, filled with anomalies. Yet, it made little difference. Regardless of the conditions, the greatest of all time always finds a way to dismantle even the most meticulously crafted plans.
