Less than a year after Gianni Infantino took over from Sepp Blatter as FIFA president, the decision was made to expand the men’s World Cup from 32 to 48 teams. The announcement elicited a range of reactions. Diego Maradona expressed his joy at this initiative, believing it would ignite the passion for football in every nation aspiring to reach the tournament. In contrast, Joachim Löw, who was managing the German national team at the time, cautioned that this could dilute the competitive integrity of the tournament, stating, “delighted by Gianni’s initiative”
The inaugural edition of the 48-team tournament, which concluded with Spain as champions after 104 matches spanning five and a half weeks in North America, suggests that both Maradona and Löw had valid points.
Infantino emphasized the global nature of football when he announced the new format in 2017, declaring, “I don’t think it’s a good idea to dilute the sporting value … In the long term, the quality suffers.” The 2026 World Cup indeed showcased the sport’s diversity, as Africa and Asia benefitted significantly from increased qualifying spots. All four first-time participants made their mark, with Livano Comenencia’s equalizer for Curaçao against Germany standing out, while Cape Verde emerged as the tournament’s biggest underdog despite not securing a victory.
Wider Disparities in Competition
The expansion of the tournament also highlighted stark differences between the competing teams during the group stages. In the last World Cup, Brazil’s match against Ghana represented the most significant ranking disparity, with a 60-place difference. This time, there were five group matches where teams were separated by more than 65 places. Some games proved competitive, such as England’s goalless draw with Ghana and Spain’s scoreless match against Cape Verde. Nevertheless, the top teams faced little risk of shocking defeats or early exits, unlike Spain in 2014 or Germany in 2018. Uruguay was the only major team to be eliminated prematurely this tournament.
In contrast, while Costa Rica recorded the worst goal difference in 2022 at -8, five nations in 2026 either matched or performed worse than this. Iraq, with a -11 goal difference, was the weakest team in Group I, which included France, Norway, and Senegal—all of which advanced as expected. The more predictable group stage at least gave renowned players like Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi room to build momentum as they competed for the Golden Boot.
Concerns Over the Third-Place System
Following the dramatic group stage of 2022, where only about 6% of teams were eliminated before the final matches, FIFA opted to retain four-team groups for the 48-team format instead of shifting to three-team groups. This decision allowed eight third-place teams to advance to the knockout stage, but it did not eliminate the potential for collusion among teams. Moreover, those playing later in the schedule had an unfair advantage in knowing what results were needed to progress.
Change could occur rapidly in knockout stages. For instance, when Riyad Mahrez scored for Algeria to make it 3-2 against Austria in the dying moments of their group match, Algeria appeared set to advance. However, conceding an equalizer in the 96th minute altered their path to a match against Switzerland instead of facing Spain. Teams finishing third, like Scotland, faced days of uncertainty while waiting to learn their fate.
With the tie-breaker rules revised from goal difference to head-to-head results, five teams were already eliminated before their final group games, leading to a misleading impression that everything remained at stake.
Future Expansion to 64 Teams?
Infantino reiterated the necessity of organizing the World Cup “Football is more than Europe and South America; football is global,” when he suggested a potential expansion to 64 teams. Increasing the number of participating nations by 16—while only adding 24 matches—could be a pragmatic step for FIFA. This change might eliminate the flawed third-place system and revert to a format where the top two teams progress from each group, thus introducing more competitive stakes, although it would likely exacerbate the existing discrepancies among teams.
Countries like New Caledonia (ranked 151) and Indonesia (118) participated in the late-stage qualifiers for 2026 and could qualify with increased quotas. The question remains: how would these teams fare against giants like Spain or Argentina? Additionally, with the top 16 teams grouped together, anticipated high-profile matchups—already scarce this year—might be even less likely. A thrilling encounter like England’s 4-2 victory over Croatia would not materialize under a 64-team format.
Logistical challenges also arise with the prospect of four matches a day during a three-week group stage, especially in the summer heat of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco. Out of the 23 proposed venues, only the updated Bernabéu and Camp Nou stadiums feature roofs. As discussions on further expansion continue, the topic will likely remain a point of contention.
