The first set of matches in the World Cup has concluded, allowing us to evaluate the performance of all 48 participating teams. What insights can we derive from these games? Who excelled, who struggled, and who faced early setbacks? An analysis of the Opta statistics unveils intriguing details that may not have been evident from the final scores.
Mexico 2–0 South Africa
Mexico exhibited the slowest ball movement of any team this round, taking their time due to South Africa’s minimal threat. The losing side’s tally of red cards equaled their total touches in the opponent’s penalty area, suggesting a disastrous outcome.
South Korea 2–1 Czechia
This match marked the debut of a noteworthy trend seen in the 2025-26 Premier League season. A long throw-in from former West Ham defender Vladimir Coufal was headed in by Wolves’ Ladislav Krejci, giving Czechia an early advantage. However, South Korea emerged as deserving victors, with their 25-pass build-up leading to Hwang In-beom’s equalizer, ranking as the fifth-longest sequence resulting in a goal since 1966.
In contrast, Czechia’s effectiveness in set plays appeared lacking compared to Bosnia and Herzegovina. They managed seven out of eight shots against Canada from set pieces. Sergej Barbarez will need his squad to create more than one chance from open play per match, especially as they face opponents who wasted opportunities, similar to Canada.
United States 4–1 Paraguay
Pre-match predictions from Opta Analyst suggested this would be one of the closest encounters, but the USA defied expectations. Paraguay, despite a solid defensive record in the South American qualifiers, conceded 53 touches in their penalty area, the second highest after Curaçao against Germany.
Qatar 1–1 Switzerland
Australia 2–0 Turkey
Spain 0–0 Cape Verde
Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay
Portugal 1–1 DR Congo
These matches are grouped as the favored teams failed to secure victories, largely due to similar shortcomings. Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, and Uruguay rank among the top five for possession and accuracy in final-third passes. They maintained control of the ball but, except for Portugal, managed at least 25 shots.
The root of the issue was the quality of their opportunities. A decent expected goals figure loses significance when distributed across numerous long-range attempts with low probabilities. Spain averaged only 0.08 xG per shot, with Uruguay (0.06) and Turkey (0.04) trailing behind. This performance was worse than what Burnley and Wolves achieved in the Premier League this season (0.09), teams that few aspire to emulate.
The so-called underdogs showcased more defensive resilience than in the past, sending a warning to stronger teams.
Brazil 1–1 Morocco
This match illustrated Brazil’s potential. While their midfield showed vulnerabilities, highlighted by Morocco’s goal, getting the ball to Vinícius Júnior could prove effective for them.
Credit goes to Carlo Ancelotti, whose tactical adjustments at halftime ensured that Morocco did not register a shot from the break until the 98th minute.
Haiti 0–1 Scotland
With nine draws already recorded, this World Cup phase has seen the highest proportion of draws in its history. Could this be a consequence of a tournament format that lacks stakes for many teams? Time will tell.
This particular match should have ended in a tie, as both teams had equal expected goals of 1.05.
Germany 7–1 Curaçao
Data from Transfermarkt indicates that Germany’s starting lineup was valued at €559.4m (£485m) more than Curaçao’s. Opta assigned the four-time champions a staggering 90.7% chance of winning this contest.
Netherlands 2–2 Japan
The Netherlands achieved a remarkable expected goals tally of 1.38, the highest among all teams. Japan, despite scoring twice, had the lowest xG of any team that did so, with 19 touches inside the opposing penalty area.
Ghana 1–0 Panama
These matches concluded in either glorious or heartbreaking fashion, depending on one’s perspective. Ecuador struck the post three times, while Panama squandered two significant opportunities as defined by Opta. As the match approached its conclusion, the data suggested both teams deserved a draw.
However, Amad Diallo and Caleb Yirenkyi dashed those hopes with late goals for their teams.
Sweden 5–1 Tunisia
This outcome might suggest that Sweden has regained form following a disappointing qualification campaign. Nonetheless, this perception is tempered by Graham Potter’s side overachieving by 3.67 goals against their expected tally, the highest among all teams.
It seems unlikely that the Tunisian football federation is considering expected goal outliers, as they dismissed Sabri Lamouchi after this match. Hervé Renard will have a tough job ahead.
Belgium 1–1 Egypt
This match served as a reminder of the importance of capitalizing on scoring opportunities. Mohamed Salah had a header saved early in the second half when Egypt was leading 1-0, and Emam Ashour squandered the rebound, sending it out for a throw-in. Shortly thereafter, Omar Marmoush missed a counterattack chance.
Romelu Lukaku entered the fray in the 66th minute, immediately forcing an equalizing own goal, while Egypt could only muster three low-value chances until the final whistle.
Iran 2–2 New Zealand
Iran fielded one of the oldest starting XIs in World Cup history, averaging 31.8 years. Fans of football history might recall the 1998 German side, which was older and defeated Iran 2-0.
Despite their age, this match was one of the most entertaining. Iran faced a formidable New Zealand duo, Chris Wood and Elijah Just, with the former assisting the latter twice, making them the only pair to achieve two goals together.
France 3–1 Senegal
France delivered a performance characterized by contrasting halves. Their first 45 minutes suggested they might fall into the “big team with lots of the ball fail to win” narrative. However, exquisite passes from Michael Olise and Adrien Rabiot changed the narrative.
Six Premier League teams failed to record more than two assists from through balls throughout the entire season; France managed both in a 16-minute burst of brilliance.
Iraq 1–4 Norway
Iraq was competitive until a couple of defensive mistakes allowed Norway to take the lead. Erling Haaland leads the tournament in individual expected goals, with his tally significantly bolstered by a blunder from goalkeeper Jalal Hassan.
Argentina 3–0 Algeria
Perhaps the most surprising statistic from the initial fixtures is that Algeria recorded more touches in the opponent’s penalty area than Argentina, limiting the defending champions to just 12. However, they were the sole team that failed to register a shot on target, and with Lionel Messi in top form, data often takes a backseat.
Austria 3–1 Jordan
Austria’s performance featured 11 shots, four of which were on target, mirroring Jordan’s statistics. The difference lay in the Opta-defined big chances; Austria led that metric 4-0 and also benefited from an own goal.
England 4–2 Croatia
England’s seven big chances were the highest of any team in this round. It was no surprise that four of these opportunities arose from set pieces, as they recorded more shots from these situations than in open play. Harry Kane’s brace moved him closer to the top 10 all-time World Cup goal scorers.
Uzbekistan 1–3 Colombia
Finally, Colombia secured a routine victory against Uzbekistan. The latter managed to make the xG numbers appear respectable thanks to Abbosbek Fayzullayev scoring from a high-value chance rated at 0.98. Very few will get a better chance to become a national hero.
