When discussing Portugal, much of the focus gravitates towards Cristiano Ronaldo. With the 41-year-old making his sixth World Cup appearance, it’s easy to overlook the remarkable talents of his teammates. However, Portugal stands as a formidable contender for their inaugural World Cup title. According to the Opta supercomputer, only Spain (16.0%), France (12.9%), England (10.8%), and Argentina (10.0%) are deemed more likely to triumph than Portugal (7.1%).
This marks Portugal’s ninth World Cup, and they have participated in seven consecutive tournaments since 2002, their first outing since 1986. Their best performance came in 1966 when a team led by Eusébio reached the semi-finals, ultimately finishing third after defeating the Soviet Union.
In recent tournaments, however, Portugal has faced disappointment. Their victory in Euro 2016 was preceded by a group stage exit at the 2014 World Cup and a last-16 exit in 2018. So, can they improve their fortunes this time?
With an impressive roster that includes Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, João Neves, Bernardo Silva, Rúben Neves, and Samú Costa, Portugal boasts one of the strongest midfield groups in the tournament. Fernandes concluded his most successful Premier League season with Manchester United, netting nine goals and providing 21 assists, leading the league in chances created (136) and breaking the record for most assists in a single season, surpassing Thierry Henry (20 in 2002-03) and Kevin de Bruyne (20 in 2019-20).
Although Fernandes has occasionally struggled to replicate his club form internationally, he has significantly improved for the national team in recent years. In Portugal’s final World Cup qualifying match, a resounding 9-1 win over Armenia, he showcased his skills by scoring a hat-trick and creating eight chances. In two recent friendlies—a 2-0 victory over the United States and a 2-1 triumph against Chile—he contributed to three goals, delivering two assists against the US and netting the winning goal against Chile. In World Cup qualifying, he led the team with 21 chances created, ten more than the next best player.
Behind Fernandes in the midfield lies another exceptional talent: Vitinha. As the dynamic engine of Paris Saint-Germain, the reigning European champions, he finished third in the latest Ballon d’Or rankings, trailing only Ousmane Dembélé and Lamine Yamal. The 26-year-old is influential both with and without the ball, capable of controlling the game’s tempo and rhythm—an essential skill given the tournament’s heat and humidity.
Vitinha registered 11 assists across all competitions this season, with only Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Dembélé providing more for PSG (12). He was named the player of the match in the Champions League final after delivering an outstanding performance against Arsenal, completing 141 passes—the most in the match—and recording 162 touches. Throughout the season, he led Europe’s top five leagues in passes completed (5,234) and passes in the opposition’s half (3,001).
The selection of Roberto Martínez as head coach in 2023 raised eyebrows due to his lackluster performance with Belgium’s golden generation. Nevertheless, Portugal aimed to shift from the conservative style of his predecessor, Fernando Santos, who guided them to victory in Euro 2016 but employed predictable tactics. The objective now is to evolve into a more fluid and attacking team that effectively utilizes its offensive talent and can outscore its rivals.
Fast-forward to the present, and under Martínez, Portugal has scored 100 goals in 39 matches (2.6 goals per game). In their other major tournament under his management, Euro 2024, Portugal exited in the quarter-finals, losing to France on penalties after a goalless draw. However, they rebounded admirably by winning the Nations League for the second time, with a notable 2-1 victory over Germany in the semi-finals and a penalty shootout win against Spain in the final following a 2-2 draw.
During World Cup qualifying, Portugal averaged 25 shots per match, leading all European nations, and recorded 8.3 shots on target per match—only Spain (9.6) and Croatia (8.5) had higher averages. The team also scored the most goals following high turnovers per match (0.5), with only Belgium (2.5) generating more shots from such situations than Portugal (2.3).
Ronaldo netted five goals during qualifying, more than any other player on the team, and led in shots (31), shots on target (12), and expected goals (5.73). For Portugal to excel in the tournament, contributions from the supporting players in attack will be crucial. Martínez has also brought in João Félix, Trincão, Francisco Conceição, Pedro Neto, Rafael Leão, Gonçalo Guedes, and Gonçalo Ramos to bolster the attacking options.
João Félix offers an unpredictable element in the final third. After a tumultuous period marked by two transfers to Chelsea, a loan to Barcelona, and another loan to Milan, he appears to have regained his confidence and is performing well after his transfer to Al Nassr in the Saudi Pro League.
The 26-year-old recently earned the player of the season award, surpassing Ronaldo, thanks to his impressive tally of 20 goals and 13 assists in 33 league matches. If he can maintain this form, his impact could be significant. Portugal has the talent to advance far in the tournament; the key will be whether Martínez can effectively harness it.
This is an article by Opta Analyst
