German mathematician backs Holland for 2026 glory – and his record is hard to ignore

A German number cruncher has correctly picked the last three World Cup winners. Now he says the Netherlands will take the crown in 2026.

Joachim Klement called Germany in 2014, France in 2018, and Argentina in 2022. Three in a row. Not bad for a man who built his model to prove the opposite.

He told Der Spiegel that the first time it worked, he was shocked. “I was horrified when Germany became world champions in Brazil,” he said. “All the experts said no European team had ever won a World Cup in South America.”

So what goes into his formula? A few things. GDP per capita – that affects stadiums and coaching. Population size. How much the country breathes football. The team’s FIFA ranking. And a slice of luck, which he’s careful to mention.

Run the model for 2026, and here is what comes out. Holland beat Spain in the semi. Then they edge Portugal in the final. In the other semi, Portugal send England home.

But here is the thing. Klement does not want you to bet on this.

“It’s completely irrational,” he says. “It’s like playing the lottery. If someone places a bet based on my prediction, they are beyond help.”

He compares it to a coin toss. “You might call heads four times in a row. That can happen. But it does not mean heads will come up again next time.”

One last detail. The Dutch have reached three World Cup finals. No nation has played more without ever winning one.