The World Cup is in a constant state of evolution. Expanding its reach and experimenting with new formats, it continues to see a recurring theme: victories by the same eight nations from Western Europe and South America.
Since Argentina’s triumph in 1978, only France and Spain have joined the ranks of winners, both hailing from UEFA. Their success stems from leveraging the benefits of wealth and European infrastructure, making them models for countries looking to enhance their youth development programs.
Yet, a disconnect seems to exist between the established powers and the game’s leadership. Gianni Infantino positions himself as a voice for the global south, yet, like his predecessors, Sepp Blatter and João Havelange, he relies on support from voters in Africa, Asia, and Latin America to maintain his position.
The dire conditions faced by migrant workers in Qatar and the denial of entry to fans, journalists, and officials in the USA and Canada have not dented Infantino’s standing. Delegates continue to benefit from salaries, expenses, and committee roles, ensuring stability in the status quo.
While the expanded Club World Cup may yield profits for elite Western European clubs, it also signifies Infantino’s ongoing battle with UEFA. A more assertive Europe could potentially challenge FIFA’s dominance, yet Aleksander Ceferin’s UEFA has mostly engaged in mere provocations, such as freezing ticket prices for Euro 2028 and appointing Omar Artan, the Somali official, to officiate the Super Cup final.
As FIFA continues to grow larger and more unwieldy, it remains supported by regions that feel the brunt of its policies. In a world dominated by authoritarianism, Infantino appears untouchable. However, a new era may be on the horizon.
The question of whether a nation outside Europe or South America can clinch the World Cup has gained prominence since Cameroon made the quarter-finals in 1990, followed by Nigeria and Cameroon earning Olympic gold in 1996 and 2000. This tournament features two strong contenders squaring off against established powers in the last 32: Japan will face Brazil, while Morocco takes on the Netherlands, a team that, despite never winning the World Cup, has reached three finals and embodies the old guard.
Both Japan and Morocco have shown promise leading up to the tournament and have largely retained their performance levels throughout the group stage, albeit through different paths.
Morocco’s World Cup history far exceeds its achievements in the Africa Cup of Nations. Even if the Court of Arbitration for Sport dismisses Senegal’s challenge against the decision to award Morocco the 2025 Cup of Nations, it would still only mark their second triumph in the competition. Morocco made history in 1986 as the first African nation to advance past the World Cup group stage and reached the semi-finals in Qatar four years ago.
Undoubtedly, their diaspora has played a significant role in their success. Of the 26 players on the squad, 19 were born outside Morocco, with three hailing from the Netherlands. Many of these athletes have benefited from training in elite European academies, which offer resources unavailable elsewhere.
Morocco is also investing in its own developmental programs. The Mohammed VI football academy near Rabat has produced four players for the 2022 squad. Although only midfielder Azzedine Ounahi is currently in the squad from this academy, the program has expanded to four additional cities, suggesting a promising future for aspiring athletes in Morocco.
In Japan, financial resources are not a concern. The J League, founded in 1992, has been remarkably successful. While the best players still often move to Europe—only three players from this squad currently play in Japan—they are nurtured domestically. Major European clubs now have fewer reservations about signing players from the J League, as adaptability is no longer seen as a significant hurdle.
Moreover, a distinct Japanese playing style has emerged under national coach Hajime Moriyasu over the last eight years. The team employs organized pressing and a technical, possession-based approach, exemplified by Daizen Maeda’s goal against Sweden.
Morocco will need to devise a strategy to neutralize the threat posed by Brian Brobbey and limit his service; the encounter between Achraf Hakimi and Cody Gakpo could prove crucial. Japan, on the other hand, has yet to secure a knockout victory in a World Cup, creating a psychological hurdle. However, their comeback from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Brazil in a friendly in Tokyo last October may help alleviate some of that pressure.
Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil now finds itself in a unique position, reminiscent of his Real Madrid tenure: undeniably flawed, yet still possessing enough star power to secure victories. Ancelotti may continue to draw decisive performances from Vinícius Júnior, but Japan could dominate the midfield, especially if Takefusa Kubo returns from a knee injury to enhance their attacking capabilities.
These two matches promise to be fiercely contested. Brazil and the Netherlands remain formidable foes, and the two teams representing potential challengers to the traditional football elite could see their journeys end swiftly. Yet, the intrigue surrounding these matchups is noteworthy. If a new order is indeed emerging, its foundation will be laid on the pitch through connections with the European system, rather than through Infantino’s machinations.
